Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 68

Chicago Bears 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to TB 21, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-12-V.Jones. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model