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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 1-R.White right end pushed ob at CHI 28 for 4 yards (29-T.Stevenson).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model