Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 84

Chicago Bears 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(12:39) 16-T.Gill punts 49 yards to TB 35, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.93 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model