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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to CHI 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.28 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP