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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-R.Green), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, recovered by TB-5-J.Camarda at 50.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model