Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 7

(14:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods to HOU 28 for 7 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.95 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model