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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

IND
40.6%
HOU
59.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.237 vs Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.107 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

IND 18
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: HOU by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Kylen Granson TE Questionable Hamstring
Andrew Ogletree TE Questionable Concussion
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Toe

HOU

Jalen Pitre S Out Chest
Jimmie Ward S Out Hip
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Knee
Neville Hewitt LB Questionable Illness
C.J. Stroud QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 31
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:49 TD IND (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 09:18 TD IND (9:18) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 0
  • Q1 03:19 TD HOU (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – HOU 6
  • Q2 09:47 TD IND (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – HOU 7
  • Q2 04:28 FG HOU (4:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. IND 21 – HOU 10
  • Q2 00:15 TD IND (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at HOU 1 for 3 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 27 – HOU 10
  • Q3 05:54 FG IND (5:54) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 31 – HOU 10
  • Q4 13:28 FG HOU (13:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. IND 31 – HOU 13
  • Q4 09:54 TD HOU (9:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-N.Dell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 31 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 95%

    (5:04) (No Huddle) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to IND 12 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-E.Speed.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:46) 16-T.Zentner punts 40 yards to IND 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods to HOU 28 for 7 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:52) 16-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 24 for no gain (20-K.Hollman).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (4:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 27%

    (9:17) 16-T.Zentner punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 87%

    (5:54) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 93%

    (13:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 3-N.Dell to HOU 33 for 13 yards (20-N.Cross).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 23%

    (6:07) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 2-R.Woods to HOU 29 for 10 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 72%

    (2:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 25%

    (1:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.