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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 60

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 16-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 24 for no gain (20-K.Hollman).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model