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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 3-N.Dell to HOU 33 for 13 yards (20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP