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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP