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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 81

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 2-R.Woods to HOU 29 for 10 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 38, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model