Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Houston Texans 20

(1:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.62 EP
52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -1.55 EP

KICK -0.56 EP

25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
75% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model