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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 14

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(5:04) (No Huddle) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to IND 12 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model