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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP