KC @ JAX — 4th & Data

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Jacksonville Jaguars

1-1 HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

48.4%

JAX

51.6%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

KC offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
JAX defense: -0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
JAX offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
QB edge to KC: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.125 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.212 EPA/dropback
KC on 3 more days rest than JAX

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 23 16–30

–

JAX 24 17–31

Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Questionable Illness

Travis Kelce TE Questionable Knee

JAX

Antonio Johnson S Out Hamstring

Gregory Junior CB Out Hamstring

Luke Fortner C Questionable Ankle

Tyler Lacy DE Questionable Hip

Brandon Scherff G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 17

–

JAX 9

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 13:03 FG JAX (13:03) 10-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 0 – JAX 3
Q2 00:30 TD KC (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. KC 6 – JAX 3
Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 7 – JAX 6
Q3 11:36 TD KC (11:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – JAX 6
Q4 13:48 FG JAX (13:48) 10-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 14 – JAX 9
Q4 08:15 FG KC (8:15) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 17 – JAX 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 36%

(10:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to KC 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-R.James.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 81

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP

p(convert) 74%

(9:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-C.Conner.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(8:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to KC 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James to KC 14 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 37

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

(4:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to JAX 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-35-Ja.Watson.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP

p(convert) 72%

(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

(13:03) 10-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%

(4:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at 50 for -5 yards (95-C.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 47%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to JAX 32 for 10 yards (33-D.Lloyd; 32-Ty.Campbell).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(8:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to KC 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James to KC 9 for 4 yards (20-D.Thomas).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(4:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 7 yards (44-Ca.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(3:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to KC 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(2:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to JAX 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 23 for -2 yards (43-J.Cochrane).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(13:48) 10-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 77%

(10:24) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 28 for 2 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 20 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

(8:15) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 16 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

(4:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley (38-L.Sneed). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
See the full breakdown →

Kansas City Chiefs