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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 10-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model