4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at 50 for -5 yards (95-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model