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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to KC 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.87 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model