Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(3:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to KC 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model