Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(2:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to JAX 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 23 for -2 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model