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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 10-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP