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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model