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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to JAX 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-35-Ja.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP