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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model