Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- MIN offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.109 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
MIN
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:51 FG PHI (9:51) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. MIN 0 – PHI 3
- Q2 10:45 TD MIN (10:45) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – PHI 3
- Q2 02:46 TD PHI (2:46) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 9
- Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. MIN 7 – PHI 13
- Q3 13:55 TD PHI (13:55) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 19
- Q3 11:02 TD PHI (11:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 26
- Q3 09:18 TD MIN (9:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – PHI 27
- Q4 07:47 TD MIN (7:47) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-J.Sweat]. MIN 20 – PHI 27
- Q4 04:18 TD PHI (4:18) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 21 – PHI 33
- Q4 01:14 TD MIN (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – PHI 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(9:51) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:20) 14-R.Wright punts 51 yards to PHI 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-B.Covey to PHI 16 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye). FUMBLES (45-T.Dye), recovered by PHI-22-K.Ringo at PHI 10.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(6:23) 10-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to MIN 46, Center-45-R.Lovato. 4-B.Powell to PHI 34 for 20 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by PHI-41-N.Morrow at PHI 27.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%
(:48) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:35) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to PHI 31, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:30) 10-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to MIN 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:33) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to PHI 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-11-N.Thompson.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 80%
(13:45) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard to MIN 25 for 3 yards (99-D.Hunter).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 58 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to PHI 46 for 12 yards (41-N.Morrow).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 49 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%
(:15) 10-A.Siposs punts 31 yards to MIN 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 4-B.Powell to MIN 17 for -1 yards (22-K.Ringo).