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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard to MIN 25 for 3 yards (99-D.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model