Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 14-R.Wright punts 51 yards to PHI 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-B.Covey to PHI 16 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye). FUMBLES (45-T.Dye), recovered by PHI-22-K.Ringo at PHI 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model