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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:15) 10-A.Siposs punts 31 yards to MIN 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 4-B.Powell to MIN 17 for -1 yards (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP