Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 10-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to MIN 46, Center-45-R.Lovato. 4-B.Powell to PHI 34 for 20 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by PHI-41-N.Morrow at PHI 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.96 EP
53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model