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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model