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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 17 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model