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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NYG
58.8%
ARI
41.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Joshua Dobbs (ARI) -0.170 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.011 EPA/dropback
  • NYG defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYG 24
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYG

Azeez Ojulari DE Doubtful Hamstring
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Doubtful Knee
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Hamstring

ARI

L.J. Collier DE Out Biceps
Josh Woods LB Out Ankle
Budda Baker S Questionable Hamstring
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Hand
Leki Fotu DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 31
–
ARI 28

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:15 TD ARI (6:15) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) 9-J.Dobbs scrambles up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – ARI 13
  • Q2 08:47 FG ARI (8:47) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. NYG 0 – ARI 17
  • Q2 01:13 FG ARI (1:13) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. NYG 0 – ARI 20
  • Q3 13:48 TD NYG (13:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – ARI 20
  • Q3 09:39 TD ARI (9:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-M.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ARI 26
  • Q3 03:30 TD NYG (3:30) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – ARI 28
  • Q4 08:57 TD NYG (8:57) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – ARI 28
  • Q4 04:29 TD NYG (4:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 18-I.Hodgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 27 – ARI 28
  • Q4 00:23 FG NYG (:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 31 – ARI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 68%

    (12:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 43%

    (10:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to ARI 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:27) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to ARI 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to ARI 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-G.Dortch to NYG 49 for 14 yards (41-M.McFadden; 82-D.Bellinger). PENALTY on ARI-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 37.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (8:47) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 87%

    (1:13) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (14:51) 16-N.Cooney punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (9:47) 8-D.Jones up the middle to ARI 4 for 2 yards (93-J.Ledbetter).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:42) 16-N.Cooney punts 54 yards to NYG 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-E.Gray to NYG 36 for 14 yards (47-E.Turner; 0-Z.Pascal).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:39) 16-N.Cooney punts 48 yards to NYG 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.