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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.20 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model