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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 28 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 16-N.Cooney punts 54 yards to NYG 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-E.Gray to NYG 36 for 14 yards (47-E.Turner; 0-Z.Pascal).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model