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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 28 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 16-N.Cooney punts 48 yards to NYG 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model