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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 16

New York Giants 28 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model