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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 32 for 7 yards (50-D.Harper).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model