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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NYJ
24.0%
DAL
76.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.122 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.137 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Zach Wilson in place of Aaron Rodgers)
  • DAL defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYJ

Greg Zuerlein K Questionable right Groin
Mekhi Becton T Questionable Knee
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder
Breece Hall RB Questionable Knee

DAL

Tyler Smith T Doubtful Hamstring
Donovan Wilson S Doubtful Calf
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Knee
Zack Martin G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 10
–
DAL 30

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 TD DAL (9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:14 FG DAL (9:14) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYJ 0 – DAL 10
  • Q2 07:21 TD NYJ (7:21) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – DAL 10
  • Q2 01:56 TD DAL (1:56) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-52-S.Eguavoen, Defensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on NYJ-72-M.Clemons, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. NYJ 7 – DAL 16
  • Q2 00:07 FG NYJ (:07) 15-A.Seibert 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 10 – DAL 18
  • Q3 07:27 FG DAL (7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYJ 10 – DAL 21
  • Q3 05:24 FG DAL (5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYJ 10 – DAL 24
  • Q4 12:27 FG DAL (12:27) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYJ 10 – DAL 27
  • Q4 08:22 FG DAL (8:22) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYJ 10 – DAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:11) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DAL 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:38) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:26) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-A.Davis. 21-A.Davis up the middle to NYJ 23 for 4 yards (50-D.Harper; 56-D.Fowler).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:01) 5-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (9:14) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:23) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DAL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:33) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 32 for 7 yards (50-D.Harper).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (:07) 15-A.Seibert 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:23) 5-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DAL 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%

    (5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:52) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to DAL 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (12:27) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (8:22) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:04) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NYJ 31, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.