4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 16

New York Jets 7 – Dallas Cowboys 18

What Actually Happened

(:07) 15-A.Seibert 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.90 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model