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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 10 – Dallas Cowboys 18

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 5-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DAL 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model