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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 18 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP