4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 21 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model