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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 86

Dallas Cowboys 30 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NYJ 31, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.33 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model