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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 81

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-A.Davis. 21-A.Davis up the middle to NYJ 23 for 4 yards (50-D.Harper; 56-D.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model