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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 31

Detroit Lions 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.LaPorta (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model