Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.272 vs Geno Smith (SEA) -0.032 EPA/dropback
- SEA offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- SEA defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- DET on 3 more days rest than SEA
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
SEA
DET
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:07 TD SEA (7:07) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DET 0
- Q1 03:55 TD DET (3:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 8-J.Reynolds for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – DET 6
- Q2 04:59 TD DET (4:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – DET 13
- Q3 14:22 TD SEA (14:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – DET 14
- Q3 09:09 TD DET (9:09) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – DET 20
- Q3 03:30 FG SEA (3:30) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – DET 21
- Q4 10:45 TD SEA (10:45) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – DET 21
- Q4 08:14 TD SEA (8:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Brown [10-U.Nwosu] at DET 40. 22-T.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – DET 21
- Q4 03:12 TD DET (3:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 31 – DET 27
- Q4 00:03 FG DET (:03) 36-R.Patterson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. SEA 31 – DET 31
- Q5 05:48 TD SEA (5:48) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 37 – DET 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to DET 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for no gain (32-Je.Reed).
-
Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 79%
(9:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.LaPorta (21-D.Witherspoon).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%
(7:42) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 53%
(1:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to DET 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-19-J.Bobo.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(:52) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to SEA 36, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%
(11:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to SEA 6 for 5 yards (20-J.Love).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(7:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to SEA 44 for 3 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(3:30) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(:32) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 8-J.Reynolds [58-D.Hall].
-
Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%
(:03) 36-R.Patterson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.