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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to DET 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-19-J.Bobo.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP