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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 11

Detroit Lions 14 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(11:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to SEA 6 for 5 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.48 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model