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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 30

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model