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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

WAS
38.2%
DEN
61.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.131 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.354 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

WAS

Quan Martin CB Out Concussion

DEN

Frank Clark LB Out Hip
Greg Dulcich TE Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 35
–
DEN 33

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:19 TD DEN (6:19) 38-J.McLaughlin left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 00:28 FG WAS (:28) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – DEN 7
  • Q1 00:20 TD DEN (:20) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 09:07 TD DEN (9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-B.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DEN 20
  • Q2 01:52 TD WAS (1:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-82-L.Thomas was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs. WAS 9 – DEN 21
  • Q2 00:02 FG WAS (:02) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 14 – DEN 21
  • Q3 11:53 TD WAS (11:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – DEN 21
  • Q3 02:14 FG DEN (2:14) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. WAS 21 – DEN 24
  • Q4 13:29 TD WAS (13:29) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – DEN 24
  • Q4 07:18 TD WAS (7:18) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 34 – DEN 24
  • Q4 01:53 FG DEN (1:53) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. WAS 35 – DEN 27
  • Q4 00:03 TD DEN (:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-B.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Barton]. WAS 35 – DEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (10:22) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (:28) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:12) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to DEN 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 90%

    (10:23) 3-R.Wilson right guard to WAS 20 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:13) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to DEN 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-M.Mims ran ob at WAS 40 for 45 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-82-L.Thomas was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to WAS 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 53%

    (7:36) 6-J.Slye 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (2:14) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to WAS 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 6 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell). DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-1-T.Smith, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (1:53) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:56) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left guard to DEN 34 for 14 yards (31-K.Curl).